Oahu Real Estate Statistics for 2008
2008 has now come to a close and the numbers are in. The big picture on Oahu shows declines
in nearly every category, but they vary in degree by area and by classification, ie, single family
versus condominium. To truly understand the current market and how it effects your individual
property or an area you are considering, individual research is required.
For the broad overview, sales single family units for the year declined by -24.4% from 3,627
units in 2007 to 2,741 units in 2008 for a decline of 886 units island wide on Oahu. Median sale
price declined from $643,500 to $624,000 for a -3% decline. Average sale prices performed
better but also declined from $794,183 to $792,520 for a very small decline of -.2%.
In the condominium market, declines of unit sales were greater while the prices remained stronger. Condominium sales declined -28.5% from 5,499 in 2007 to 3,933 in 2008 for a
decline of 1,566 for the year island wide on Oahu. Median sale price was flat at $325,000
and the Average sale price made a modest improvement of +.6% from $381,263 in 2007 to
$383,418 for a gain.
To me, there is a statistical disconnect in these numbers. I continue to see large declines in the
numbers of homes and condominiums sold and yet the prices continue to reflect very little impact to the actual sale prices. I realize that statistics are merely that, but my impression of the market is the prices are softer than the numbers reflect, and the transactions that I have been involved with have seen much larger drops in sale price than the broader market reflects. As I said earlier, these numbers are the broad market and I specialize in the Leeward and the Ewa Plain areas. For those areas (Ko Olina, Makakilo and Kapolei are included in the Ewa Plain neighborhood. Here are the breakdowns.
# of sales Median Price
Neighborhood
Single Family Change Change
2008 2007 # % 2008 2007 %
Ewa Plain 486 592 -106 -17.9 465,000 515,000 - 9.7
Makakilo 85 143 - 58 -40.6 560,000 577,300 -2.9
Makaha-Nanakuli 167 213 - 46 -21.6 380,000 380,000 -0.0-
Condominiums
Ewa Plain 224 346 -122 -35.3 299,000 292,000 +2.8
Makakilo 84 135 - 51 -37.8 299,000 319,000 -6.3
Makaha-Nanakuli 72 118 -46 -39.0 154,000 176,500 -12.7
Bearing in mind that these totals reflect totals for the year and since we are most interested in trends, it is revealing to look at the December '08 as compared to the December '07 trends. It is also important to note that because of the nature of "sold" statistics, they tend to lag the actual market. For example, a property might be on the market in May and go under contract in July and actually close in September. In a downward market, the market statistics lag the actual market by months.
In these same neighborhoods, December stats were:
Single Family Dec Dec Change Dec Dec Change
2008 2007 # % 2008 2007 %
Ewa Plain 33 41 - 8 -19.5 438,000 494,700 -11.5
Makakilo 7 8 - 7 -12.5 545,000 572,500 - 4.8
Makaha-Nanakuli 6 16 - 10 -62.5 322,500 410,000 -21.3
Condominiums
Ewa Plain 11 23 -12 -52.2 255,000 315,000 -19.0
Makakilo 6 7 -1 -14.3 243,500 332,500 -26.8
Makaha-Nanakuli 3 4 -1 -25.0 190,000 241,500 -21.3
These numbers reflect the market that I "feel" when I am showing property and talking with buyers and sellers. The hope is that the lower interest rates which have been moving down since September have reached a point with the dramatic drops in December that will stimulate the market. In any event, the affordability of homes (Price and Interest rates) has made a huge improvement. At 2.26 % on the 10 year treasury in the last week of December 2008, we are now below the low of lows. This compares to 4.12 % in December of 2007. At the time of this writing, the rate has continued to fall and conventional 30 year mortgages are in the 4.5% range and the government loans are in the 5% range.
The last statistic that I want to post is the "Months of Inventory Remaining". In November there was and inventory of 8.6 months for single family and 8.4 months for condominiums. In December both of these numbers changed dramatically to 12.0 and 13.1 months respectively. The chart on Page 16 of the full link will show you the significance of this size of change. This number is determined by the total number of units available divided by the actual amount of units sold that month. As a trend indicator it is very telling and if January is consistent with December, it will indicate a dramatic shift in the market.
I encourage you to look at the complete data available in this comprehensive analysis compiled by Honolulu Board of REALTORS at the following link: 2008 Statistical Analysis By HBR .
As always, if I can answer any questions or if you would like to have any personal assistance, please feel free to contact me and I will assist you in any way that I can. Contact Michael
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS Research Dept., compiled from MLS data.
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